Wednesday 29 May 2019

The European Parliament election results


by Robin Baker

The number of votes cast in the European Parliamentary election in the UK together with my assumption as to whether those voters were supports of Brexit of remain were:

Party
            % of votes
Pro Brexit
Pro remain
Indeterminate
Brexit 
31.6
31.6
Lib Dem 
20.3
20.3
Labour  
14.1
14.1
Green  
12.1
12.1
Conservative     
9.1
9.1
SNP   
3.6
3.6
Change UK         
3.4
3.4
Ukip     
3.3
3.3
Plaid Cymru 
1
1
Total
98.5
44
40.4

So, based on this assumption it appears that the number of those voting pro-Brexit exceeded the number voting for remain.

But in fact some Labour voters, indeed probably the majority, were actually remain supporters.  If just 38% (that is 5.8% of all voters) were remain supporters and the rest supporters of Brexit, then there were more remain than Brexit voters.

Of course drawing any conclusion form these results is dangerous, among other reasons because of the low poll.  However it seems to be to be very probable that more than half the Labour voters were in favour of remain.  If I am right, then despite all the Farage cheering and boasting, then these results are encouraging for remainers.